The “partial mobilization” announced by Russian President Vladimir Putin to force citizens to join the fight in Ukraine will backfire on authoritarian leaders, cause unrest, could risk weakening his hold over the public.
“There is growing dissatisfaction with Putin’s policies among the Russian people,” says Rebecca Koffler, former DIA intelligence officer and author of “Putin’s Playbook: Russia’s Secret Plan to Defeat America.” told Fox News Digital.
Koffler’s comments come after Putin’s partial mobilization announced last week caused widespread turmoil in Russia. There have been reports of Russian men fleeing the country in the thousands and violent demonstrations that Russian leaders have so far avoided during the months-long Russian invasion. Ukraine.
Putin’s announcement comes after Ukrainian forces launched a highly successful counterattack, hunting down Russian forces in several areas.
Putin begins conscription to step up military aggression as Ukraine launches counterattack
In a speech announcing the decision, Putin said the conscription would address “the threat that we face: defending our homeland” and that Ukraine’s “strength of our people and those in liberated territories.” It will help ensure safety,” he said. A limited reservist and a veteran of a particular specialty.
“We are talking about partial mobilization, that is, only citizens currently in the reserve are subject to conscription, and above all those who have served in the armed forces have specific military expertise and relevant experience,” Putin said. have.
However, the Washington Post reported that many of those drafted had never served in the military, and some were either too old for military service or had health problems that prevented them from taking part in the fighting. To make matters worse, most of the conscripted people are the poorest in the country, including minorities, and those who aim to attend college are exempt from conscription.
The result was widespread backlash, with protests erupting and multiple military recruitment centers being attacked or set on fire. In Russia’s Irkutsk region, a military recruiter was shot dead, and in Omsk a fight broke out between conscripted men and the local police tasked with getting them on buses.
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More than 2,000 people were arrested protesting the decision and more than 5,000 vehicles retreated at the Russian-Georgian border in an attempt to flee the country, according to Washington Post figures. and fled on foot, and almost all planes flying out of the country were intercepted.
Leaving the country is the only option for some Russian men after Russia announced this week that troops who voluntarily surrendered to Ukrainian forces would face harsh penalties, including 10 years in prison, if they returned to Russia. Maybe. Only those who can escape captivity and return to their forces will be saved.
“There has been a massive exodus of Russian men after Putin invoked partial mobilization and the Russian government amended its criminal code to tighten punishments for refusing to fight on the front lines of Ukraine. It’s happening,” Koffler said.
Putin’s decision has awakened those who were indifferent to the events unfolding in Ukraine due to Putin’s propaganda pushed through the Russian media and the threat of severe punishment for those who spoke up.
Russian forces blocked by Ukrainian forces and Dnieper river, barge carrying supplies to Russian forces sinks
The upheaval put Putin on the defensive at home for the first time since the civil war began. This is another obstacle that Russian leaders must deal with as they try to find a path to military victory in Ukraine.
But public discontent is unlikely to loosen Putin’s grip on power, Michael E. O’Hanlon, director of foreign policy research at the Brookings Institution, told Fox News Digital. “
“I don’t think Putin will lose his grip on power,” O’Hanlon said.
Koffler expressed similar sentiments, arguing that it was “unlikely” that Putin’s rule would be threatened anytime soon.
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“Will it create a backlash to the point that Putin’s government collapses and he is expelled? It’s unlikely,” Koffler said.
Koffler added that Putin is likely to stay in power “at least until 2024.”
“If Putin is no longer able to govern, it will be Nikolai Patrushev, a fellow ex-KGB operative who is as ruthless as Putin himself, who will be in power, at least temporarily,” Koffler said.
Koffler argued that there is a “western misconception that if only Putin were gone, all problems with Russia would be gone,” citing Russia’s long history of anti-Western and anti-U.S. foreign policy and consistent tendency toward totalitarianism. did. rule.
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“Putin ruled Russia in 2000, fixed things, stabilized the economy and improved security,” Koffler said. “But then, like most Russian and Soviet leaders, he gradually turned Russia into a totalitarian state. It’s a perpetual cycle.”