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While Russia’s war in Ukraine grabs most of the international headlines, another conflict has erupted in the post-Soviet space with major implications for both Russia and its historical sphere of influence.Recent Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan border clashes killed about 100 people, including 37 civilians and four children, and injured hundreds more. The clash will exert its influence on the territory of the former Soviet Union, which Russia has historically attempted, another one of her flashpoints alongside Ukraine.
“Russia is proud to be recognized as a regional security leader, including leading the CSTO (Collective Security Organization), the self-proclaimed NATO alternative bloc. Alexander Cooley, a professor of political science at Barnard College, told Fox News Digital.
Earlier this month, there were reports of Tajik and Kyrgyz border guards firing at each other, targeting civilian areas on both sides of the border. Both sides have accused the other of a recent string of violence along the border in southern Kyrgyzstan’s Batken region, much of which has been disputed.
The ceasefire appeared to hold since the two presidents met at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) earlier this month until Tajiks accused Kyrgyzstan of violating the agreement. Many observers in the region believe that minor skirmishes along the border will continue, as has happened frequently in the past.
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The underlying border dispute remains unresolved. Russian President Vladimir Putin met with Kyrgyzstan President Sadir Japarov and Tajik President Emomali Rahmon, urging both sides to end the violence and defuse the situation. Beyond a rhetorical urge to end hostilities, it is unclear to what extent Putin is involved in the current conflict.
The territories of Central Asia and the former Soviet Union are historically important geographies where Russia has sought to exert influence and power.
“Putin and his regime are seeking to bring the former Soviet states back under Russian rule and form a Soviet-like alliance. There is,” former Defense Intelligence Agency officer and author Rebecca Koffler told Fox News Digital in her book “Putin’s Playbook: Russia’s Secret Plan to Defeat America.”
Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan have remained firmly within Russia’s sphere of influence since declaring independence in 1991. Both countries host Russian military bases and are members of her CSTO, a forum for Russia to develop a military presence in Central Asia. Politically, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan are part of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). This is an agreement between the divided former Soviet republics. Some members of these post-Soviet institutions are involved in conflicts that undermine the integrity of these institutions.
Central Asia is Russia’s backyard, so Putin has an incentive to keep the region calm and stable. As his war in Ukraine slows and Ukraine intensifies its counterattacks and reclaims occupied territories, Putin has little time to devote to another conflict.
Russian President Vladimir Putin to the Ukrainian region at the ceremony on Friday
Experts say Putin is focused on a war of aggression in Ukraine and is calling in foreign mercenaries from Central Asia as Russian forces continue to experience severe setbacks in the eastern Donbass region. Meanwhile, the United States has little influence or credibility in Central Asia, especially after its withdrawal from Afghanistan in August 2021. but it says exactly that it should be done without preconditions.
“If the United States seeks to democratize the region, it is a doomed project for the cultures of Central Asia and the West to be vastly different. These are highly authoritarian states that prioritize national supremacy over individuals. Human rights are not a language they understand, and if the United States pursues purely business relationships, it can. It previously maintained a military base in Kyrgyzstan operated by the US Air Force. As the world’s engine of innovation and expertise in high-tech, healthcare and other industries, the United States always has the opportunity to have business relationships with any administration,” she noted.
The recent conflict between the two former Soviet republics reveals tensions that persist 30 years after the collapse of the Soviet Union and the formation of the newly independent states.
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“There are different Soviet maps dating back to different years, showing different lines, and ground that each side pulls out from time to time to make its case. Central Asia expert at the US Peace Institute, Gavin Helf told Fox News.
The crisis between Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan is not the only conflict flaring up in the post-Soviet space. Armenia and Azerbaijan have also been embroiled in a decades-long dispute over disputed territories inherited after the collapse of the Soviet Union. I saw more than one soldier killed.
Russia normally intervenes diplomatically with its neighbors to resolve such disputes, but Putin does not even intervene between the two countries. Some believe this lack of interest is a clear sign that Russia’s influence is waning.
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“I see this as a deflation of Russian influence. If Russia’s war in Ukraine drags on and Russia loses and turns inward for a while, it will persist. All these conflicts are new “There’s room for things to happen again now,” or new room for Russia to resolve them without putting a finger on the scale,’ said USIP’s Helf.