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CIA Secretary William Burns suggested that China carefully study Russia’s many failures in Ukraine.
At the Aspen Security Forum, Mr Burns said, “I think the question of whether Chinese leaders will choose a few years ahead to use their power to rule Taiwan is probably less affected, but when and how. Do you do that? ” “If there is one lesson that I think they may have drawn from Putin’s experience in Ukraine, it is that you do not achieve a quick and decisive victory with overwhelming power.”
Burns conducted an extensive interview in the forum, covering topics ranging from Iran’s nuclear capabilities to the imprisonment of American basketball player Brittney Griner in Russia. But he spent most of his time discussing the two biggest rivals in the United States.
He said from Putin’s spirit, the factors that could have contributed to Russia’s failure to win the conflict quickly and decisively, and how China experienced the possibility of Taiwan’s invasion. We paid particular attention to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, such as whether we could learn some lessons.
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“I wouldn’t underestimate President West’s determination to claim China’s control over Taiwan,” Burns said. “He is determined to ensure that his army has the ability to take such action if he decides to move in that direction.”
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine proved Putin’s “strategic failure,” and Burns believed that the latest U.S. intelligence estimates killed about 15,000 Russian troops and injured “probably three times” more. It was revealed that there was. This was the first update in months from sources on potential losses in Russia.
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“Ukrainians are probably suffering a little less, but the big picture is the serious casualties,” Burns said. “Russia plans to continue digging into Ukraine and beating in the winter. When it comes, NATO’s solidarity will weaken because fuel costs are so high in Europe. “
According to Burns, Putin’s failure to “break NATO” would prove his greatest failure. The partnership will add Finland and Sweden, allowing them to “strengthen their deployment.”
Instead, Russia is now shifting its focus to the Donbus region, “retreating to a comfortable way of war,” and instead relying on “long-range firepower” to create standoffs, compensating for weaknesses in human resources. ..
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This may have led China to take a more “cautious” approach to its troops after seeing Putin bring Europeans and Americans closer together. “Chinese are worried because they have taken advantage of their ability to play off Europeans and Americans,” Burns said.
“Chinese leadership has been somewhat unstable due to what they saw, especially during the first few days of the Putin war in Ukraine. It is unstable due to the military performance of early Russians and the performance of Russian weapons. The war will be unleashed all over the world in a year.
“I think Xi Jinping’s main concern is to pass a very important party convention in the fall and have a relatively predictable global economic situation.”
Burns also discussed the threat of global warming and said it was a challenge comparable to that of China.
“As I do, assuming that the People’s Republic of China is the greatest geopolitical challenge our country faces in the 21st century, many points, as I can see. The biggest existential threat in China is climate change, “he says. He said.
The CIA director also reiterated warnings that Iran’s acquisition of nuclear weapons has increased. This was repeated by the French Foreign Minister earlier this month.
Under JCPOA, he said, “The joint comprehensive nuclear agreement that the last administration withdrew a few years ago had a breakout time of just over a year to produce that amount of fissile material.” Stated.
“The same breakout time can be measured in weeks, not more than a year,” he said today.
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Burns also told the audience at the Aspen Security Forum that he was in Afghanistan a week before the US withdrawal.
“As the President publicly said, I don’t think any of us expected the Afghan government to flee as quickly as they did, or the Afghan army to collapse as quickly.
“That said, I think the CIA has always been pessimistic, at least in terms of emphasizing the obvious and obvious ways the Taliban made rapid progress between spring and summer. It was hollowed out in many ways, not only in political leadership, but also in the military. “