Brasilia, Brazil – Incumbent Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro started the night with a modest 8% lead as results began to trickle in, but during the night, Luis Inacio Lula da Silva, better known as Lula, took the lead. Slowly and steadily I cut into that lead. At 8 p.m., with 70% reporting, Lula had a slight lead over Bolsonaro, and in the end he finished with 48% to Bolsonaro’s 43.5%, a significantly tougher result than the polls had shown. have become.
Lula’s retake of the lead reflects the slow counting of votes coming from the small states in the north of the country.
Bolsonaro appears to be winning in the south and southeast, and is doing especially well in his political power base in the states of São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro. The state of Gerais in Minas, the nation’s second-largest state with a good number of votes, had a close game that changed the lead several times, but eventually settled in Lula’s line.
Lula worked very well in the traditional Workers’ Party power base in the Northeast or “Nordeste” region, making great gains in states such as Ceara, Bahia, and his home state of Pernambuco.
Brazil’s Bolsonaro, Lula to runoff vote in presidential election
Leftist Chilo Gomez proved to be the big disappointment of the night. Known for having one of the sharpest tongues in Brazilian politics, he was shunned by a strategic vote, possibly shifting the vote to Lula, by supporters who realized his campaign had no chance.
Neither candidate received 50%, so Lula and Bolsonaro will face off in the second round of voting on October 30, vying for the voters who favored Simone Tebet in third place and Gomez in fourth place. .
Following the election results, Bolsonaro addressed a large group of media and supporters in front of Brasilia’s Palacio da Albolado, accusing the country’s leading pollster of providing polls that differed significantly from the election results. accused of
He specifically singled out Datafolha, describing the leading pollster as a liar. A major Brazilian pollster predicted that Lula would win the first round, mostly by a margin of 17%, but Lula ended up winning the first round by 5 points. You’ve won, but you’re not yet at the 50% you need to win. victory in the first match.
Bolsonaro acknowledged that his campaign did not reach everyone, saying that while Brazil endured economic troubles during the pandemic, the policies proposed by Lula hurt the Brazilian economy even worse. I implied that it would have been
The Bolsonaro campaign, which often complained that polls were biased and flawed, now appears to have had good reason to do so. His Datafolha, Quaest, IPEC and others, the country’s leading pollsters, will no doubt come under scrutiny ahead of the second round of elections at the end of the month.
For political analysts, Brazil’s results may bring to mind episodes such as the 2016 Donald Trump surprise, the Brexit vote, and Colombia’s 2016 peace referendum. Bolsonaro’s supporters are likely angry and have even less confidence in the polls than before. They may be justified in those feelings.
As political analyst Cristian DeRosa argues, “There is no question about using polls as a tool for influence. [the electorate].”
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What is clear from tonight’s results is that Brazil remains a deeply divided country politically. Of her 26 states in Brazil, only 3 of her states make up her 40% of the population. 22% in São Paulo, 10% in Minas Gerais and 8% in Rio de Janeiro. These southern states are generally more conservative, while the northeastern states lean left.
Bolsonaro and Lula are ideologically very different, and Brazil’s 156 million voters often break down along racial, geographic, gender and age lines, which are at odds with those of the United States. It’s not all that different.
Many theories exist as to why the polls were so far apart.
Brazilian football star Neymar’s endorsement a few days ago may seem insignificant, but in Brazil, where “Jutebol” is given almost religious status, his endorsement (he has been on social media ) may have shifted a few points in the direction of Bolsonaro.
Derosa argues that it likely had a considerable effect.
Brazil’s political system is complicated by the sheer number of political parties. 33 to be exact. Political parties are notorious for constantly changing alliances, and many of Brazil’s leading politicians have changed parties four or five times, or more.
Bolsonaro is likely to face an uphill battle in the run-off due to his low number of votes with Lula, but tonight there was another piece of good news for the Bolsonaro camp.
Bolsonaro-related candidates have performed well in gubernatorial and legislative elections, with Brazilians winning governorships in all 26 states and Brasilia, 513 federal representatives (in Brazil’s lower house), and a third of the 81 senators. I am picking 1. state.
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Bolsonaro’s Liberal Party won 100 seats in the House, Labor 79, Senate 13 and Labor 9, while other allies such as Progressives and Republicans also performed well.
In the country’s most important gubernatorial election, Tarcisio de Freitas, who is allied with Bolsonaro, will run against Labor candidate (and 2018 presidential candidate) Fernando Fernando in next month’s runoff for Sao Paulo governor. It looks poised to defeat Haddad.