After a deadly spring heatwave, summer floods have killed more than 1,100 people in Pakistan. Since June, rain has washed away buildings, submerged homes and destroyed roads. A third of his land is under the sea.
Scientists can’t say exactly how climate change shaped the disaster, but global warming has sharply increased the likelihood of extreme rainfall in South Asia, home to a quarter of humanity. I know it’s on the rise. There is little doubt that it has made this year’s monsoon season more devastating.
Today I will talk about some of the climate factors and why Pakistan, a country that has done so little to cause global warming but is currently the most vulnerable to its effects, has been hit so hard. increase.
global warming and monsoons
The South Asian summer monsoon is part of the regional weather pattern. The wind blows mainly from the southwest from June to September. That onshore breeze brings wet weather. In normal times, that’s usually fine. Farmers in the region rely on the monsoon rains to harvest their crops.
But these are no longer normal times. Global warming means that water evaporates much faster in the ocean. Also, a warm atmosphere can hold more moisture. Therefore, there is a risk of heavy rainfall due to monsoons.
Researchers need time to conduct an attribution study to understand exactly what happened this summer, but Stephen Clemens, a professor of Earth, Environmental and Planetary Sciences at Brown University, said that Pakistan The months-long deluge is “very much in line with what we expect.”
Pakistan’s rainfall during this monsoon season is almost three times the national average for the past 30 years, the country’s disaster agency said. In Sindh, which borders the Arabian Sea to the south, precipitation is about five times the average.
Why preparation and recovery are difficult
The ongoing political instability in Pakistan complicates the challenge of preparing for more intense rainfall. No prime minister has completed his term. In April, former Prime Minister Imran Khan was ousted. This month, he was indicted under anti-terrorism laws amid a power struggle with the current leader.
The country’s difficult economic situation also means that there are not enough resources for adaptation projects. At some point this month, the annual inflation rate was 42.3%.
Madiha Afzal, an analyst at the Brookings Institution in Washington, told me that economic and political turmoil distracted attention from the heavy rains and delayed the government’s response.
“People weren’t focused on it,” she said. “So things that should happen in a disaster, like calling people to evacuate the flooded areas, didn’t happen.”
Economic problems are also likely to affect the government’s ability to protect displaced people and rebuild what has been destroyed, Afzal said. Agriculture could be particularly hard hit. The sector is hiring, according to World Bank data. almost 40 percent of PakistanisAcross the borders of India, it is nearly half of all jobs.
USA of the month Announced $1 million aid To help Pakistan cope with the disaster.and the country of monday $1.1 billion loan from the International Monetary Fund To avoid imminent default. However, Pakistani government officials speculate that: These flood damages alone exceed $10 billion.
But it’s not just about money and political will.
Clemens said the model and the computers that run it cannot yet predict exactly when and where extreme weather events will occur, or how specific regions will be affected. Adapting an adaptation project in is not easy.
The floods in Pakistan are an example. After being destroyed in record-breaking floods in 2010, the 16-foot (5-meter) high bridge was re-flooded a few days ago.
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