WASHINGTON — The energy crisis sparked by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is likely to accelerate, not delay, the global transition from fossil fuels to cleaner technologies such as wind, solar and electric vehicles, says a world leader. the Energy Agency said Thursday.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its annual report that while some countries are burning more fossil fuels such as coal this year to meet the natural gas shortages caused by the civil war in Ukraine, the impact will be short-term. said to be expected. global energy outlookis a 524-page report that forecasts global energy trends to 2050.
Instead, the agency predicts for the first time that global demand for all types of fossil fuels will peak in the near future.
One of the main reasons is that many countries have responded to rising fossil fuel prices this year by adopting wind turbines, solar panels, nuclear power plants, hydrogen fuels, electric vehicles and electric heat pumps. In the United States, under the recent Inflation Reduction Act, Congress authorized spending more than his $370 billion on such technology. Japan is pursuing a new “Green Transformation” program to help fund nuclear, hydrogen and other low-emission technologies. China, India and South Korea have all increased their national targets for renewable energy and nuclear power.
Nonetheless, the transition to cleaner energy sources is not progressing fast enough to avoid dangerous levels of global warming, and governments have warned that carbon dioxide, the source of global warming in the next few years Not unless stronger action is taken to cut emissions, the agency said. .
Based on current policies in place by governments, global coal use is expected to start declining over the next few years, and demand for natural gas is likely to plateau by the end of the decade. , oil use in the mid-2030s.
Meanwhile, global investment in clean energy is projected to grow from $1.3 trillion in 2022 to more than $2 trillion annually by 2030, which the agency says is a sea change.
“It is worth noting that many of these new clean energy targets are not being set solely for climate change reasons,” Fatih Birol, executive director of the agency, said in an interview. . “Increasingly, energy security and industrial policy are major drivers, with many countries wanting to be at the forefront of the future energy industry.”
Current energy policies will cause the world to peak in carbon dioxide emissions by 2025, rising about 2.5 degrees Celsius (4.5 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels by 2100. This is in line with another forecast released by the United Nations on Wednesday, which analyzed countries’ stated commitments to tackle emissions.
In contrast, many world leaders have set average global warming at around We want to keep it below 1.5 degrees. To do that, we need to cut greenhouse gas emissions significantly, and greenhouse gas emissions will not only peak in the next few years, but will also continue to grow by the end of this decade. Scientists say it will be reduced by almost half.
“If we want to reach more ambitious climate goals, we will need to invest about $4 trillion in clean energy by 2030,” said Dr. Birol. “In particular, there is little investment in developing countries.”
This year, the world’s carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels will be Expected to rise by about 1% Coal use is on the rise in Europe and elsewhere, and countries are scrambling to replace the lost Russian gas. (Coal is the most polluting of all fossil fuels.)
Still, it’s a much smaller increase than some analysts feared when the war in Ukraine first broke out. Without the rapid spread of wind turbines, solar panels and electric vehicles around the world, the increase in emissions would have tripled, he said, the agency said. High energy prices and slowing economic growth in Europe and China also contributed to holding emissions down.
Also, the recent increase in coal use may be fleeting. European countries are currently planning to introduce about 50 gigawatts worth of renewable energy next year. That’s more than enough to replace the increase in coal power this year. Also, globally, authorities do not expect investment in new coal power plants to increase beyond what was already expected.
Russia, which has been one of the world’s leading exporters of fossil fuels, is expected to be particularly hard hit by the energy disruption that it primarily produces. As European nations race to reduce Russia’s dependence on oil and gas, Russia is likely to face difficulties tapping into new markets in Asia, particularly natural gas, the report said. there is As a result, Russia’s fossil fuel exports are unlikely to return to pre-war levels.
But while the current energy crisis, expected to be a boon to clean technology in the long term, is currently hurting badly, the report notes.
Governments around the world have already committed about $500 billion this year to protect consumers from rising energy prices. European nations now appear to have enough natural gas stockpiles to survive this year’s mild winter, but the report says stocks will fall as inventories dwindle and new supplies come to replace Russian gas. has warned that Europe’s next winter “could be even harsher.”
Developing countries such as Pakistan and Bangladesh are facing energy shortages as supplies of liquefied natural gas are diverted to Europe. About 75 million people around the world who recently had access to electricity are likely to lose it this year, according to the report. If so, it would be the first time in a decade that the number of people lacking access to modern energy around the world has increased.
In some countries, high energy prices can still cause social unrest and push back against climate change and clean energy policies. Although the report concludes that climate change policies are not the main cause of the price spike, Instead, we note that renewable power and home weatherproofing efforts are actually bluntning the impact of energy shocks in many regions. Dr. Birol said there is always the risk that governments will be pressured to change course.
The new report comes out less than two weeks after countries gather at the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt. At the meeting, diplomats will discuss whether and how to step up efforts to curb fossil fuel emissions and provide more financial aid from the rich to the poor. Country.