Washington — Two men from a research group tracking Russian munitions and weapons that have been smashed across Ukraine with a delicate touch from a magnifying glass, screwdriver, and soldering gun.
During a week-long visit to Ukraine last month, investigators disassembled all the advanced Russian hardware available, including small laser rangefinders and the guidance section of cruise missiles. Researchers invited by Ukrainian security services to independently analyze Russia’s advanced gear are based in the United States and the European Union, with almost all of them including microchips, circuit boards, engines, antennas and other equipment. I found that the parts of the company to put are included.
“Advanced Russian weapons and communication systems are built around Western chips,” he said. Conflict Weapons Research, Identify and track weapons and ammunition. He added that Russian companies have enjoyed access to the “unabated supply” of Western technology for decades.
US officials have long been proud of their ability to supply technology and munitions to other parts of the world. However, the United States has faced an unfortunate reality since Russia invaded Ukraine in late February. The tools used by the Russian army to wage war are often underpinned by American innovation.
Still, the technology produced by American and European companies was opposed to Ukraine, but the situation also gave the United States and its allies an important source of influence over Russia. According to U.S. and European officials, the U.S. and dozens of countries have used export bans to block the shipment of advanced technology, hampering Russia’s ability to produce weapons to replace those destroyed in the war. ..
On Thursday, the Biden administration announced further sanctions and restrictions on Russia and Belarus, adding 71 organizations to the government’s list and blocking the purchase of advanced technology. The Treasury has also announced sanctions on yacht management companies corresponding to the Russian oligarchs.
Some analysts cautioned against drawing early conclusions and said the measures would take time to be fully effective, but the Biden administration called them successful. Since Western allies announced wide-ranging restrictions on exports of semiconductors, computers, lasers, communications equipment and other commodities in February, Russia has obtained microchips to supplement its supply of precision-guided munitions. Most other officials interviewed for this article talked about the conditions of anonymity to discuss the issue informedly.
When asked if a tip shortage was hurting Russian troops on Tuesday, Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo, who oversees export control, said the answer was “unconditional yes.”
“US exports to Russia in the categories we control exports, including semiconductors, have fallen by more than 90 percent since February 24,” she said. “It’s inconvenient.”
This restriction will suspend direct technology exports from the United States and dozens of partner countries to Russia. However, it goes beyond traditional wartime sanctions issued by the US government to impose restrictions on certain high-tech products manufactured anywhere in the world using US machinery, software, or blueprints. This means that countries that are not part of a sanctions coalition with the United States or Europe may either follow the rules or face their own sanctions.
Russia has stopped publishing monthly trade data since the invasion, but customs data from major trading partners show a sharp drop in shipments of critical parts and components.according to Compiled data Imports of Russian manufactured goods from nine major economies for which data are available are from September 2021 to February 2022, according to economics researcher Matthew C. Klein, who is tracking the impact of export restrictions. It decreased by 51% in April compared to the average of.
Klein writes that this limitation eliminates the need for traditional bombing at tank factories and shipyards in past wars. “Democracy can recreate the effects of targeted bombing with appropriate sanctions just because the Russian army relies on imported equipment.”
Russia is one of the world’s largest arms exporters, especially to India, but its industry is heavily dependent on imports and inputs. In 2018, Russian sources were satisfied with only about half of the military equipment and services that the country needed, including transportation equipment, computers, optics, machinery and metalwork. data From the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development Edited by Klein..
The remaining equipment and services used by Russia were imported, and about one-third came from other partner governments that imposed sanctions on the United States, Europe, Japan, Taiwan, Australia, and Moscow.
U.S. officials say export controls are very effective, in cooperation with various other sanctions that ban or block commerce.They pointed out Russian tank factory It has destroyed workers and is suffering from a shortage of parts. The US government has also been reported that Russian troops are scrambling to find parts for satellites, avionics, and night-vision goggles.
Technology restrictions are also damaging other Russian industries, US officials say. Equipment for the oil and gas industry has deteriorated, maintenance of tractors and heavy equipment manufactured by Caterpillar and Johndia has ceased, and up to 70% of commercial aircraft operated by Russian airlines receive spare parts and maintenance from Airbus. Boeing is gone, officials say.
However, some experts have drawn attention. Michael Coffman, Russian research director at CNA’s laboratory in Arlington, Virginia, is skeptical of allegations that export restrictions have forced some Russian tank factories and other defense companies to close. showed that.
“There wasn’t much evidence to substantiate the reporting of the problem in Russia’s defense sector,” he said. He said it was still in the early stages of the war to expect meaningful supply chain problems in Russia’s defense industry, and the procurement of those early claims was unclear.
Maria Snegobaya, a visiting scholar at George Washington University who studied sanctions against Russia, said a lack of critical technology and maintenance in the fall as companies run out of parts and supplies and need maintenance. For equipment that said it is likely to be widely felt throughout the Russian industry. She said she and other analysts would even be affected by the production of everyday items such as printer paper. Russian companies bought dyes to whiten paper from Western companies.
“We expect random disruptions in the Russian production chain to appear more often,” said Snegovaya. “The question is whether Russian companies can find alternatives.”
U.S. officials say the Russian government and the companies there have sought ways to circumvent control, but have had little success so far. The Biden administration has threatened to impose penalties on companies that help Russia avoid sanctions by blocking access to US technology.
In an interview last month, Mr. Lymond said the United States has not seen a systematic evasion of export restrictions in any country, including China, which formed an alliance with Russia before and during the invasion of Ukraine. Mr. Lymond made an independent decision that the company would not be involved with Russia, despite “very hard efforts to avoid” the global coalition of allies that Russia imposed export restrictions on. He said he was.
“The world knows how serious we are and how serious our allies are about prosecuting violations,” she said. “Companies and countries trying to circumvent export restrictions will have real consequences.”
China’s trade data also suggests that most companies are subject to restrictions. China continues to buy Russia’s energy, but China’s exports to the country have declined sharply since the invasion.
However, Spleeters said the Russian army was using creative methods to circumvent past restrictions on technology imports.
Spleeters’ research Revealed efforts by some actors To disguise the existence of Western technology in Russian equipment. During a trip to Kieu, the capital of Ukraine, Spleeters and his colleagues unscrewed three casings holding an advanced Azart encrypted radio that provides a secure communication channel for the Russian army.
They found The first two contain microchips with some of the manufacturing marks carefully erased, which seems to be an effort to disguise their origin. But in the third radio, there is the same chip slipped by a Russian censor, indicating that it was manufactured by a US-based company. (Spleeters said his group wouldn’t publish the manufacturer’s name until they sent a request for information to each company asking how their product came into the hands of the Russian army. )
Spleeters said it wasn’t clear who changed the markings or when the chips were delivered to Russia, but said attempts to hide their origins were intentional. In 2014, after Russia’s invasion of Crimea, the United States Restrictions imposed It was largely one-sided with regard to the transportation of Russian high-tech items that could help its military force.
“Maybe it’s a tool for removing a single line of markings, and it’s been properly erased,” Spleeters said. “Someone knew exactly what they were doing.”
It is unclear whether recently imposed sanctions will result in a fundamental reduction in these types of supplies to Moscow, he said, Russia has such a large stockpile of Western technology. Given that.
His team also dissected the remains of three different Russian surveillance drones. Two of them are called Orlan and Tachyon, and one is a previously unknown model called Kartograf by the Ukrainian authorities. Inside Orlan, six parts were found from a company headquartered in the United States, and one part each from a company based in Switzerland and Japan. The other two drones have pulled parts from companies in China, Germany, the Netherlands, South Korea, Sweden and Taiwan, as well as the United States.
While Spleeters and his colleagues were working, he asked members of the Ukrainian security agency about the discovery of western parts powering Russian weapons.
“It’s just a business,” the executive replied.
“It’s a big company, and people just sell chips and don’t know if they don’t care what they end up with,” Spleeters said of the Western electronics company. “I don’t think they know who will use it for what purpose.”
Eric Schmidt Report that contributed.