For four years under President Donald J. Trump, the United States has almost stopped fighting climate change at the federal level. Mr. Trump is no longer in office, but his presidency has put the country far behind in races that are already difficult to win.
New reports from researchers at Yale University and Columbia University show that environmental performance in the United States has declined compared to other countries. This reflects the fact that while the United States wasted nearly half a year, many of its peers moved intentionally.
However, he emphasized the serious obstacles to reducing greenhouse gas emissions fast enough to prevent the worst effects of climate change, even if the move was inadequate. The report’s cool conclusions promise that almost all countries will reach net zero emissions by 2050, when their activities no longer add greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. Few countries are on track to do so.
The report, called the Environmental Performance Index (EPI), builds on the 2010-2019 trajectory that only Denmark and the United Kingdom are on a sustainable path to reducing emissions by the middle of the century. I found.
Namibia and Botswana seemed to be on track with care. Although it had a stronger record than its peers in sub-Saharan Africa, emissions are minimal in the first place, and researchers will be well on policy as the economy develops today.
The other 176 countries included in the report were ready to reach the Net Zero goal. By 2050, China, India, the United States and Russia will account for more than half of the world’s emissions. But even countries like Germany, which have enacted more comprehensive climate policies, are not functioning well.
“I think this report will be a wake-up call to different countries. Many of them might have imagined they were doing what they needed, but they are. Not so many, “says Daniel C. Estee. , Director of the Yale Environmental Law Policy Center, which prepares an EPI every two years.
According to this year’s UN report, countries still have time to change course and reach their goals, but not so much. The US case shows that years of omission can steep the slope of emission reductions needed to take a country off course and bring it back.
The 2022 edition of the index, provided to the New York Times before its release on Wednesday, recorded 180 countries with 40 indicators related to climate, environmental health and ecosystem vitality. Individual metrics ranged from tree coating loss, wastewater treatment, particulate matter contamination, and lead exposure.
Biden administration’s environmental agenda
President Biden is pushing for stronger regulation, but faces a narrow path to achieving his goals in the fight against global warming.
The United States was ranked 43rd overall, with 51.1 points out of 100, 24th and 69.3 points. 2020 edition.. The decline is mainly due to the bottom decline from its climate policy. In terms of climate indicators, it plummeted to 101st place. From 15th And it chased all the wealthy western democracy except Canada, which was 142nd.
Climate analysis was based on data up to 2019, and previous reports were based on data up to 2017. In short, the changes are due to policies during the Trump era and do not reflect President Biden’s return or increased regulation.
US emissions have fallen sharply over the decade surveyed, including the majority of the Obama administration and efforts to regulate emissions, and the country continues to outpace other major pollutants.
However, given the very high starting point for the United States, the pace of reduction was inadequate. The United States has the second highest greenhouse gas emissions after China. If the current trajectory is maintained, it will be the third largest country after China and India in 2050, making it the lowest ranked country in the overall index.
Navroz K. Dubash, a climate expert at the Center for Policy Research in New Delhi, criticized the idea that all countries must move at the same rate towards emission reductions and net zero.
“This is neither an ethical defense nor a reflection of the current political agreement,” he said. “This is not an Indian practitioner. Air pollution and local environmental pollution are deeply concerned and most harmful to the poor in India. But the indicators are about justice in dealing with climate change. If you ignore legitimate and even essential considerations, it hurt, not help, progress. “
At the other end of the spectrum, Denmark ranks number one overall in climate and its parliament has a binding commitment to reduce emissions below 1990 levels by 2030. I am doing. , And its largest city, Copenhagen, aim to reach carbon neutrality in the next three years.
Denmark significantly expands wind energy and dates End oil and gas exploration In the North Sea, we taxed carbon dioxide emissions and negotiated agreements with leaders in the transportation, agriculture and other sectors. The economy grew as emissions declined.
Dan Jørgensen, Minister of Climate of Denmark, said: Denmark “it is possible to make this transformation in a way that does not hurt your society,” he said.
“It doesn’t reduce your competitiveness,” Jorgensen said. “In fact, it’s the opposite.”
The report’s methodology distinguishes between countries like Denmark, which are deliberately moving to renewable energy, and countries like Venezuela, whose emissions are declining only as a side effect of the economic collapse.
One of the good news is that many countries, including the United States, have begun to “separate” emissions from economic growth. In short, the economy is no longer directly dependent on the amount of fossil fuels it burns.
In general, rich countries still emit much more than poor countries. However, emission levels can vary significantly between two countries with similar GDP.
“Currently the main takeaway is that policy is important and there is a specific path towards a more carbon-neutral and climate-friendly future,” said Alexander Deschelbinin, one of the report’s co-authors. Associate Director and Senior Research said. Scientist at the Center for International Earth Science Information Network, Colombia. “But it really requires a high level of policy agreement.”
This report is the first edition of the Environmental Performance Index for estimating future emissions, and its methodology is limited. Most obvious, it relies on data up to 2019, so recent actions aren’t taken into account. It also does not explain the possibility of removing carbon that has already been emitted from the atmosphere. Such techniques are currently limited, but can make a big difference in the future. And it reflects what happens if countries continue to reduce greenhouse gas emissions at the same rate, rather than enacting stronger policies or, conversely, losing steam.
This explains the significant discrepancy between the EPI researchers who have put the UK on track and the UK’s independent Climate Change Commission, which advises the UK government. Said The current policy is inadequate. (There are also technical differences. In addition to domestic emissions, the Commission considers emissions from other countries when producing goods imported by the United Kingdom, but not EPI.)
Martin Wolf, EPI’s project director, said the UK’s recent cuts were primarily due to the switch from coal to natural gas, and the Climate Change Commission said, “This trend is still the case when unruly fruits are chosen. It’s a little pessimistic that it will continue. ” “I think the rapid expansion of the UK’s renewable energy capacity is a sign that the UK is still on track.”
Tanja Srebotnyak, director of the Zirka Center for Environmental Initiatives at Williams College and an expert in environmental statistics, said he saw it as a “reasonable first attempt” to improve the prediction methodology later.
Dr. Srebotnjak, who worked on past EPI editions but was not involved in the development of this year’s report or new indicators, said it is controversial how best to estimate current trends. increase. But she added, “I think it helps policymakers have another tool in their toolbox to track their actions, compare with peers, and learn from each other.” I did.