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House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, Democrat, Calif., rested her chin on her arms. It was the third inning of a Congressional baseball game. But the Democrats already lost her 3-0.
I climbed out of the dugout into a chair to interview the speakers during the live broadcast of the game on Fox Sports. Pelosi is an avid baseball fan. She draws her San Francisco Giants and Baltimore Orioles. Her father lured the St. Louis Browns to Charm City when he was mayor and helped them become O’s.
“Sometimes I coach, sometimes I referee. I have my own point of view,” Pelosi said.
The Republican hitter had just shook House Democratic Caucus vice chairman and pitcher Pete Aguilar, D-California. But Pelosi, who has always been an optimist, gave one of his most famous quotes on national pass time.
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“As Yogi Berra said, ‘It’s not over until it’s over,'” said the chairman.
Bella knew what he was talking about. He directed the 1973 New York Mets. The “Amagins” ran into the playoffs with walker records of 82 and 79. But the Mets sidetracked the legendary Cincinnati “Big Red Machine” in the National League Championship Series. That Mets team still holds the distinction of having the worst regular season record ever to make it to the World Series. Then the Mets defended his champion Oakland and took the Athletics to his seven games before losing the world title.
In addition to the baseball game, Pelosi may have been talking about the possibility of Democrats taking control of Congress this fall. For the party, especially keeping the House has not looked favorable for months.
But the Speaker of the House could have avoided one final blow of the Democrats to pass some version of the Social Spending Plan.
Manchin withdrew from negotiations on “Build Back Better” on July 18. The chances of reaching an agreement at that point were as likely as someone pitching a “blank inning” at a Congressional baseball game.
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But like the lightning stroke of Roy Hobbs’ bat in Robert Redford’s classic “The Natural,” Manchin and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, DN. It will address climate change, reduce the budget deficit, lower the price of prescription drugs, and even fight the bacteria that can cause bad breath.
But Pelosi may have called it “it’s not over until it’s over,” alluding to the challenge of pushing through the “Manchin Bill” in the House and Senate.
Reaching a deal with Manchin may have solved one key piece of the puzzle: passing a simplified version of the Democrats’ touchstone legislative initiative. In fact, many Democrats may have thought that was all it took to get the bill together.
But as the yogis say, “It’s not over until it’s over.”
Here’s why:
Democrats are aiming to introduce the bill into the Senate this week. House will then return next week to sync. The House left for its “August recess” on Friday. But like every year, Congress doesn’t actually take an “August recess.”
First, Senator Elizabeth McDonough is scrutinizing the bill to ensure it complies with special rules for budget adjustments. Budget adjustment requires that the bill’s provisions focus on tax, spending policy and must be budget neutral for 10 years. Senators want to know immediately if it complies or if changes need to be made. Bills cannot contain rigid policy provisions. Most components should be financial in nature. Policy She cannot use budget adjustments for initiatives.
That is why the Democratic Party changed the “title” of the bill to “Inflation Reduction Act.” After all, “Build Back Better” has become a toxic moniker over time.
This bill is not Build Back Better per se. However, it does include some key components of Build Back Better, addressing drug cost reductions and environmental/climate initiatives.
The latest iteration of Build Back Better costs About $1.7 trillion. There was pressure to spend over $2 trillion. At one point the package was about $4 trillion. Also, some liberals were demanding his $6 trillion.
Cinema has yet to decide on Manchin’s social spending bill, will make decision after congressional review
But even the sophisticated version of the bill is far from guaranteed passage.
This is why it’s “not over until it’s over”.
As we always say, it’s about math. It’s about math. It’s about math.
It is not yet clear whether Democrats have the support of Senator Kirsten Cinema (D-Arizona) on the bill. Democrats can only pass legislation through budget adjustments. Democrats can circumvent the filibuster if all 50 members of Congress vote for it. You can also force Vice President Harris to tie the vote.
However, even with the support of all 50 members, passage is still not guaranteed.
The Senate says all 50 Democrats are healthy, Current Vote.
Unlike the House, there is no remote voting in the Senate. Manchin had COVID, but he just came back. Senator Patrick Leahy (D-Vt.) has been out all summer because he has had two surgeries since he fell. However, Leahy returned late last week. Senate Majority Whip Dick Durbin, D-Illinois, has tested positive for COVID and is absent for now. And Vice President Harris must be healthy, too.
No one may cast a tie ballot for the Vice President. period.
Health may be the most difficult thing of all.
Democrats have enjoyed only a short period of time since late March, when all senators were healthy and were able to vote on the floor after testing positive.
Pennsylvania Democratic Senator Bob Casey tested positive on March 22. He returned a few days later. But then. Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.) tested positive in early April. Warnock returned and offered a short window in mid-April when the Democrats got everyone together. Then Sen. Chris Murphy (Democrat, Connecticut) and Sen. Ron Wyden (Democrat, Oregon) tested positive on his April 26th. Senator Michael Bennett (D-Colorado) tested positive on his May 1st. -Senator Jeff Markley, D-Ore.He May until he tested positive on May 23. Leahy then collapsed at his home and required surgery in late June. White House Senator Sheldon, DR.I., tested positive on June 30.
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Democrats have not had all 50 senators present all month of July due to Leahy’s absence and six senators who tested positive last month.
This is why it’s “not over until it’s over”.
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If the Democrats are healthy, though, Harris may not need to be a draw. Texas Republican Senator John Cornyn has tested positive. So if the Democrats can move quickly, they could pass the bill 50-49.
Pelosi hopes to align the House with the Senate next week. But in Minnesota, he has a special election on August 9 to fill the seat of the late Rep. Jim Hegeddon (R-Minn). The Democratic margin in the House is expected to shrink to just three seats if Republican Brad Finstad wins the special election for Hagedorn’s indefinite term.
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So it’s best that Democrats can act quickly to get it through the House and Senate. But no one relies on it.
That’s why when it comes to the new Manchin bill, “it’s not over until it’s done.”