Early Monday morning, Hurricane Ian was a tropical storm with heavy rain and winds of over 73 mph. But experts say the storm is rapidly gaining strength and, if recent history is any guide, could intensify dangerously as it approaches Cuba on Monday night.
As the global climate warms, more storms are experiencing this type of rapid intensification, rapidly growing from relatively weak tropical storms to Category 3 or higher hurricanes within 24 hours, sometimes causing forecasters to and gives residents little time to prepare.
Here are some key facts about how climate change will rapidly intensify tropical storms.
Warming Oceans Help Stronger Winds
90 and above Over the past 50 years, the oceans have absorbed one-hundredth of the excess heat from human-induced global warming. According to him, since 1901, sea surface temperatures have risen an average of 0.14 degrees Fahrenheit every decade. NOAA data.
This is very important because Arashi gains power on the sea. And the warmth the water, the more power you pick up. The higher the surface temperature, the higher the hurricane can reach the higher level of sustainability. This is a general indicator used to represent the strength of the storm.
Susana J. Camargo, hurricane expert and professor at Columbia University’s Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, said:
Analysis of 2020 satellite imagery shows that the likelihood of a hurricane developing into a Category 3 or higher storm with sustained winds exceeding 110 miles per hour has increased by about 8% in the decade since 1979.
those winds intensify more rapidly
Kelly A. Emanuel, a meteorologist and hurricane expert at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, says warmer oceans not only make storms stronger, but they also intensify faster.
Rapid strengthening technically means an increase in maximum sustained wind speed of at least 30 knots or 35 mph over a 24-hour period. According to the National Hurricane CenterResearchers found that the likelihood of a hurricane intensifying rapidly has increased from 1% since the 1980s to 5%.
Many of the deadliest Atlantic storms of the last decade have intensified rapidly. Harvey 2017 was a Category 1 hurricane on the night of August 24th. When the storm reached Texas the next day, it was a Category 4 hurricane with winds of 130 mph. And that hurricane later in her season, Maria intensified from a Category 1 to a Category 5 hurricane within just 15 hours.
In 2021, Hurricane Ida strengthened from a Category 1 with 85 mph winds to a near Category 5 hurricane with 150 mph winds in less than 24 hours.
Dr. Emanuel said Monday morning that the current situation is “ideal” for Ian to follow a similar path of development.
More than just warm seas
Several factors other than ocean temperature affect hurricanes, but scientists are less certain about other climate effects.
One of those factors is the vertical wind shear, or a measure of how much the wind speed or direction changes At rising heights in the atmosphere. Strong vertical wind shear can reduce hurricane development by tilting the storm structure and pushing cold, dry air into the center. “It’s like pouring cold water on a fire,” said Dr. Emmanuel.
of 2019 research According to a paper published in the Nature Scientific Report, researchers found that rising temperatures could lead to a weakening of vertical wind shear, allowing hurricanes approaching the U.S. East Coast to intensify more quickly. discovered.
However, the findings were localized. Different impacts of warming on windsears could be observed globally, said Dr. Camargo, one of the study’s authors.
Bets increase at short notice
Rapidly increasing hurricane numbers and unexpectedly intensifying hurricanes are a thorny problem for forecasters, and forecasters’ assessments can affect community preparedness.
Dr. Emmanuel said that the time frame to make a decision would be short. For example, when authorities work with forecasters to issue evacuation orders too early, hundreds of thousands, sometimes millions, of people scramble, block highways and disrupt transportation systems. There is a danger of In some cases, it is more dangerous, destructive, and costly than left as it is.
“Then you shouted a wolf,” said Dr. Emmanuel. People may not listen the next time an evacuation warning is issued.
But if you call too late, people won’t have time to escape the effects of a dangerously strong hurricane.
Dr. Emmanuel said that a relatively weak hurricane developing overnight into a Category 4 or 5 hurricane is “a forecaster’s worst nightmare.”