Planning a pilgrimage to enjoy the vivid foliage will be trickier this year.
Months of record drought in the Northeast robbed trees of water, while in the West nearly 100 large fires swept a trail of destruction in seven states.
From California to Oklahoma to Maine, 2022 will play out a different symphony of colors with the arrival of snaps in the air. But Leaf Peepers need not despair. Those who love to enjoy the vivid colors of autumn can have a lot of fun this year if their planning is right.
Impact of climate change
Dr. Gordon Over, professor of environmental sciences at Endicott College in Beverly, Massachusetts, said:
According to Dr. Ober, this effect can be seen in several ways. The peak of the autumn foliage season has arrived late, and its duration is shortening.
“The warmer climate has extended the growing season for hardwoods in the Northeast and West,” he said. “Decades ago, peak leaf peeping occurred in early autumn, but now it usually occurs later in the day.”
Warmer temperatures keep some trees green for the second half of the season, keeping away the bright crimsons and golds that foliage observers prefer, says Dr. Ober. Other areas are turning brown prematurely due to lack of rain.
This year Fifth hottest year in recorded historyThe summer of 2022 was set to be the hottest on record around the world. As mercury rose, water levels dropped to dangerous levels, leading to severe drought by August. Affects more than a quarter of the continental United Statesas of late September, the northeastern quarter continues to receive unusually low precipitation.
Dr. Nicole Davi, who leads the Department of Environmental Sciences at William Paterson University, studies trees and the effects of extreme weather and other events on them. She is currently doing fieldwork in New York’s Catskill Mountains, and in many places, she said, she felt this year’s viewing season was over before it began.
“We’ve had a pretty severe drought this season, and the colors are likely to fade. What we’re seeing in the lower Hudson Valley and northern New Jersey is that we’ve completely blown the leaves,” she said. Told. “You can see how stressed the trees are. When you’re stressed, you don’t see that same color glow.”
when and where to find color
The good news is that travelers looking for the best colors can rely on hindsight as a guide.
“This season is expected to largely mirror the 2021 season,” said AccuWeather senior meteorologist Alan Reppert.
AccuWeather says that in places like Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont and upstate New York, color peaks later this year, in mid-to-late October, instead of the usual late September and first week of October. I predict. This trend was similar last year.
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In Michigan and northern Minnesota, the leaves are likely to fall earlier than usual thanks to a cold front, and AccuWeather also found that leaves are already peaking in Minnesota’s Superior National Forest, popular for its colorful foliage. I anticipate reaching it.
Deciduous observers in the Northeast who were hoping for late summer rains to restore the season would be disappointed, says Lepert.
“Trees start preparing for fall foliage around July 4th. Rainfall and drought conditions from this point on will determine the outlook for autumn,” he said.
From Boston to New York City, AccuWeather predicts fall foliage performance will decline, with leaves falling from trees earlier in the season. In the Northeast and the Appalachian Mountains, including eastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and southeastern New York, the colors may weaken.
Some leaves are already brown in parts of Connecticut and Rhode Island.
However, the outlook and colors will be brighter in other parts of the country.
Beginning in early October, western Oregon and Washington are expected to see a vibrant display thanks to snow in the winter and plenty of rain in the spring and early summer. They should reach their peak just before the end of the month.
“Olympic National Park in Washington is one of the places along the West Coast where we expect to see full foliage this year,” Lepert said.
Heavy rainfall across the valleys of the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, Ohio, Tennessee, and Mississippi indicates a strong fall color and viewing season that lasts from mid-October to early November.
On the other hand, in California, Nevada, and western New Mexico, where moderate-to-extreme drought has persisted for the past two years, it does not peak until the end of October, with a shorter season of dull and withered foliage. expected. Until early November.
Northern California trees shine brighter. However, due to the danger of wildfires in the area, those traveling to see the foliage should monitor and take precautions for weather conditions.
And from Missouri to Illinois to eastern Kentucky, bright colors actually last longer than usual, with peak colors continuing past the first week of November.
These areas “did a 1-in-1,000-year flood within six days in late July and early August,” says Lepert. “This increased moisture level means states in the region will experience longer leaf peeping periods than in previous years.”
Summer monsoon rains are expected to give way to particularly vibrant colors in the eastern Rocky Mountains.
“The yellow aspen covering the highlands of Colorado is expected to look brighter this year,” Lepert said, though warmer temperatures and more sunshine meant that leaf peaks were slightly lower in eastern Colorado. Said it would be late. Smoky Mountains National Park predicts that peak he won’t occur until early November.
Last year, widespread drought and heatwaves disappointed the colors in the Rocky Mountains and the Northwest Interior. This year, after a wet winter, spring and early summer, the weather forecast is looking good.
“The Bighorn National Forest in northern Wyoming is a must-visit for fall foliage lovers this season,” Lepert says.
Other resources
There are several online resources that can help leaf peepers plan when and where to visit.
a Map of colored leaves Created by Smoky Mountains National Park, allows users to check weekly color forecasts across the country from September 5th through November 21st.
New England travelers New England foliage forecast for 2022, Created by New England Today, travelers with smartphones can download it. Gaia GPS Appcheck live satellite imagery of the foliage, produced by Outside Online, and time your visit accordingly.