California has set ambitious goals. In 13 years, you won’t be able to buy a new car that runs purely on gasoline anywhere in the state.
But whether California can make that vision a reality remains to be seen. The state’s plan to ban the sale of new internal combustion engine vehicles by 2035, approved by regulators on Thursday, sets tight limits on what automakers can and cannot sell. Failure to do so comes with the threat of severe penalties.
But whether the rule works in practice will depend on consumer acceptance of electric vehicles and how quickly automakers can start producing clean cars. Legal challenges are also widely anticipated that could impede policy, and some experts fear that due to the unusual process by which California is allowed to set its own pollution laws, He said there is a good chance these appeals will be successful.
Scott Segal, partner at Bracewell LLP, a law firm representing clients in the energy industry, said: “This is obviously a very tight schedule, which California envisions as the standard for new car sales,” he said. “It has pretty significant consequences for consumers and supply chains.”
Additionally, more than a dozen other states, which together with California account for about one-third of the U.S. automobile market, typically adopt California’s stricter standards for vehicle pollution. Many companies have pledged to comply with the new rules, and five are already actively preparing for it. But the speed and breadth of these decisions can further complicate deployment, as scale matters. A larger market could drive down the price of electric vehicles due to manufacturing efficiencies. .
For years, governments around the world tried more moderate measures To promote sales of electric vehicles, which emit less greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide than conventional gasoline vehicles. China mandates automakers to produce a certain percentage of zero-emission vehicles each year. Norway combines hefty financial incentives and taxes to push consumers towards electric vehicles. Electric vehicles now account for 80% of his new sales in the country.
California has taken a more blunted approach. If automakers want to enter America’s largest auto market, 35% of new passenger cars and light trucks sold in 2026 will need to be electric or other emission-free models, up from about 16% today. I have.
These targets rise to 68% by 2030 and 100% by 2035.
If automakers fail to comply, they will be fined $20,000 for each new vehicle sold in violation of the target. That amount is well above the profit margins of a typical passenger car, so it’s unlikely companies will choose to pay the penalty, experts say.
“California is good at enforcing its rules,” said Dan Becker, director of the Center for Biodiversity’s Safe Climate Transportation Campaign. .”
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But the rule can’t actually force California car buyers to buy the new electric cars that automakers have to offer. If consumers don’t comply, it becomes a much more difficult problem to deal with. Ultimately, experts say, the plan is based on the belief that people will flock enthusiastically to battery-powered vehicles in the years to come, just as they have rapidly adopted mobile phones and microwave ovens in the past.
The rule also doesn’t affect the hundreds of thousands of used cars and light trucks sold in California each year, so if you’re reluctant to buy an electric model, stick with your old gas car longer. more likely to be possible.
Becker said it’s a concern for the climate. “Many of the cars produced and sold after 2030 will still be on the roads gushing and polluted by 2050,” he said. Becker says his group and others have lobbied California regulators to advance the deadline for a total ban on the sale of gasoline cars to 2030, and has lobbied for changes. said to continue.
Officials with the California Air Resources Board, the body overseeing the new rule, said they reserve the right to revise the targets if the market does not develop as expected.and report In April, agency staff wrote that “consumer challenges” could be a major hurdle, with many people unfamiliar with electric vehicles’ high cost, charging availability and technology. I pointed out that I was wary of something.
According to the Kelley Blue Book, the average electric car currently sells for about $66,000, compared to $48,000 for the average internal combustion engine car. Also, while many homeowners have the ability to install a charger in their garage, people living in apartment complexes don’t always have that option. Researchers at the University of California, Davis, say the state could need 1.9 million additional public chargers by 2035 to meet its new target. estimated.
State officials say these challenges are surmountable, pointing to research showing that electric vehicles can save money over time due to lower fuel and maintenance costs. They also predict that electric vehicle prices will be able to compete with gasoline vehicles by 2030 as production increases and battery costs drop.
California’s new rules require automakers to pay extra to meet sales quotas if they offer new electric models for less than $20,275 or sell cars at a discounted price past the lease term. Credits are given to car manufacturers. And while the Inflation Reduction Act recently signed into law by President Biden offers tax credits of up to $7,500 for zero-emission vehicles made in North America, many auto makers are taking short-term cuts as they adjust their supply chains. In general, it can be difficult to qualify, he said. .
Consumer demand seems to be growing rapidly.a Recent research According to a Consumer Reports survey, 14% of Americans said they would “definitely” buy or lease an electric vehicle for their next purchase, up from 4% in 2020. But the survey also found that 28% of Americans aren’t thinking about making the switch.
Gil Tal, a transportation expert at the University of California, Davis, said he wasn’t too worried about the lack of consumer interest. there is already a long waiting list for new electric vehicles. “Now automakers can sell as many as they produce,” he said. “The bigger question is whether they can actually produce enough cars!”
As automakers rush to ramp up production, they may face supply chain constraints. Ford, for example, has pledged to invest more than $50 billion in electric vehicle batteries by 2026, but company executives say the key metals used in batteries such as lithium, cobalt and nickel It says it still suffers from shortages of other minerals.
California regulations offer automakers some flexibility in meeting their sales targets. For example, if a company overachieves in early sales, it can “bank” some of those credits for future use, or sell them to other automakers that fall short of their targets. You can also make up to 20% of your sales into plug-in hybrids. A plug-in hybrid vehicle is one that relies on a battery for short trips and a petrol engine for long trips. A plug-in hybrid may appeal to some buyers who are otherwise concerned about battery range.
Some environmental advocates say automakers could end up selling somewhat fewer electric vehicles than advertised under the new rules, even though regulators have approved the new tweaks. expressed concern. Limit the use of those previous credits.
Coalition for Clean Air policy director Bill Magavern said: “But credit tolerance is still generous.”
The other big question around California’s new rule is how many other states have adopted it, and whether lawsuits can stop it in the process.
Under the Clean Air Act, California is allowed to set stricter vehicle emission rules than the federal government, and other states are allowed to adopt California’s rules if they so choose. increase. California can enforce its regulations once it receives a formal waiver from the Environmental Protection Agency.
EPA may waive its right to enforce new rules in California.
Segal said legal challenges to the waiver would certainly follow. If successful, these challenges could strengthen the case of the Republican state’s attorney general, who has filed another broader lawsuit against California’s decades-old ability to set its own pollution rules. He said he had a personality.
He said opponents of California’s new rule could have strong grounds for challenging the EPA’s exemption. This is because California gets an exemption based on claims that it faces unique environmental impacts from smog and conventional pollutants not found elsewhere. But while state leaders have made it clear that making cars mandatory is about tackling greenhouse gas emissions that contribute to climate change, climate change isn’t unique to California.
“The problem with assuming policy on climate change is that California faces the same climate change impacts as Texas and West Virginia,” Segal said.
In recent years, 15 other states (together account for about one-third of the U.S. automobile market) adopted California’s previous smaller regulation to encourage sales of electric vehicles. Each of these states will have to decide whether to adopt the new 2035 ban on internal combustion engines. So far, five states — Massachusetts, New York, Oregon, Vermont and Washington — have indicated they are ready to do so this year if California receives an EPA exemption.
Other states may take longer.In recent years, officials in Colorado and Minnesota faced fierce opposition Although both states eventually moved forward when local car dealerships and industry groups moved to adopt some of California’s earlier rules.
Dr. Tull, of the University of California, Davis, said many states far behind California is against adopting electric vehicles and installing chargers, which could make it “more difficult” to pursue its own ban on internal combustion engines.
“This is a very transformative policy, and one that we expect to see a lot of debate in other states,” said Aaron Kressig, transport electrification manager at Western Resources Advocates, a conservation group. “We believe these rules will benefit consumers, but we need a lot of work to understand how they affect everyone.”