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As the novel coronavirus pandemic enters its third winter in the northern hemisphere, scientists are warning exhausted governments and citizens to prepare for another wave of COVID-19.
The United States alone could see up to 1 million infections per day this winter, according to the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), an independent modeling group at the University of Washington that tracks the pandemic. Director Chris Murray said. told Reuters. This is approximately double the current daily tally.
Across the UK and Europe, scientists are predicting a series of waves of COVID. This is because people spend more time indoors during the colder months. There will be little masking or social distancing restrictions this time around.
However, cases are likely to surge again in the coming months, aided by vaccination and booster drives, previous infections, milder variants, and the availability of highly effective COVID treatments. Deaths and hospitalizations are unlikely to increase with the same intensity, experts say.
“The people most at risk are those who have never seen the virus, and almost none are left,” Murray said.
As BA.5 OMICRON subvariant surges, vaccine experts urge at-risk people to get COVID-19 boosters now
These projections raise new questions about when countries will emerge from the COVID emergency and transition to epidemic status. Communities with high vaccination coverage have seen small outbreaks, possibly on a seasonal basis.
Many experts expected the transition to begin in early 2022, but the emergence of the highly mutated coronavirus omicron subspecies has overturned those expectations.
“The idea of ’is the pandemic over?’ needs to be set aside,” said Adam Kucharsky, an epidemiologist at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. He and others believe that COVID is turning into an endemic threat that is still causing a large disease burden.
“Someone once said that the definition of endemic is that it just makes life a little worse,” he added.
It remains a potential wild card whether new variants emerge that defeat the currently dominant Omicron subvariant.
According to a recent World Health Organization (WHO) European report, it would be a “worst case scenario” if that variant causes more severe disease and is better able to evade previous immunity.
The report, based on the Imperial College of London model, states that “all scenarios (including new variants) are at or above the level of the 2020/2021 epidemic wave, with the potential for a large future wave. It shows sexuality,” he said.
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Many of the disease experts interviewed by Reuters say it’s getting much harder to make predictions about COVID. Many rely on rapid home testing, which is not reported to government health officials, and infection rates are elusive.
BA.5, the Omicron subspecies currently peaking in many areas, is highly contagious and many hospitalized patients with other illnesses may test positive. , may count as severe cases, even if they are not caused by COVID-19. source of their suffering.
Other unknowns complicating predictions, according to scientists, include whether the combination of vaccination and COVID infection (so-called hybrid immunity) provides people with greater protection and how effective booster campaigns are. and so on.
“Anyone who says they can predict the future of this pandemic is either overconfident or lying,” said David Dowdy, an infectious disease epidemiologist at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health.
Experts are also keeping a close eye on developments in Australia, where the return of flu season coupled with COVID has overwhelmed hospitals. They say the West could see a similar pattern after several quiet flu seasons.
“It can happen anywhere, so be prepared for a proper flu season,” said John McCauley, director of the Worldwide Influenza Center at the Francis Crick Institute in London.
The WHO says countries still need to grapple with the new wave with all the tools in their pandemic arsenal, from vaccinations to interventions like testing and social distancing and masking.
What you need to know about Omicron’s vaccine-resistant variant BA.5
The Israeli government recently suspended routine COVID testing of travelers at international airports, but said it was ready to resume implementation “within days” if it faced a significant surge, the country said. said Sharon Alroy-Preis, director of public health services.
“When there’s a wave of infection, you have to wear a mask and you have to test yourself. ‘It’s living with COVID.’