Since August, the first time in 25 years that the Atlantic hasn’t had a named storm, meteorologists have been watching three disturbances that could put an end to what has been an unusually quiet hurricane season.
A region of low pressure a few hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles in the Caribbean was expected to become a tropical storm later this week. National Hurricane Centersaid Wednesday.
Forecasters said there was a 60% chance that the storm would be tropical within the next 2 days, and an 80% chance within the next 5 days. It was forecast to move west and then west-northwest toward the northern Leeward Islands in the Caribbean, but its slow-moving path could move into the weekend.
“There’s a good chance we’ll have a storm,” Torres said. ‘I have to keep watching’
Forecasters also monitored a region of low pressure about 850 miles west-southwest of the westernmost Azores in the mid-Atlantic. It has a 60% chance of becoming a tropical storm with thunderstorms with winds of 39 mph or less within the next 48 hours. According to the National Hurricane Center, there is a 70% chance that the system will evolve over the next five days.
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Additionally, a series of showers and thunderstorms between the west coast of Africa and the Cape Verde Islands could have a 40% chance of becoming a short-lived tropical cyclone over the next two days, bringing heavy rainfall to the islands, the center said. Stated.
When one of the disturbances becomes Tropical Storm Daniel, it’s a relatively quiet late summer with only three other named storms. Formed in early June, Alex caused flooding in South Florida, killing at least three of her people in Cuba. Bonnie crossed Central America as a tropical storm in her early July, briefly becoming the first major hurricane of the Pacific hurricane season. Collin, the recently named storm, formed over the weekend of July 4th and drenched the Carolinas.
This month has been unusually quiet, with no named storms. The last time a named storm didn’t occur in August was in 1997, and before that he was in 1961.
The Atlantic hurricane season lasts through the end of November, with most hurricanes and tropical storms occurring from mid-August through October.
Dan Kottlowski, senior meteorologist at AccuWeather, says three key factors are required for hurricanes and tropical storms to develop.
The atmosphere has been dry so far this year, which has contributed to the slowing season, but Kotrowski warns that there is still plenty of time for bad weather to form.
“The last seven years have had a very favorable pattern, but this year it hasn’t,” said Kottlowski, who is also the chief hurricane forecaster. “The likelihood of a strong hurricane in late September/October is still very high.”
Federal scientists this month said conditions in the Atlantic Basin indicated that this year’s season would be an “above-normal” season, with between 14 and 20 named storms, with up to 10 of them He said it could develop into a hurricane. If these predictions are carried out, this will be his seventh consecutive above-average season.
The link between hurricanes and climate change has become clearer over time.
Data show that hurricanes have gotten stronger around the world over the last 40 years. Strong storms are likely to occur more frequently as the burning of fossil fuels such as oil and gas warms the planet, but the overall number of storms is expected to rise as strong wind shear prevents the formation of weaker storms. is likely to decrease.
Hurricanes are also getting wetter because there is more water vapor in the warmer atmosphere and rising sea levels contribute to increased storm surges, the most destructive component of tropical cyclones.
Torres, a spokeswoman for the National Hurricane Center, said while there have been few major storms so far this year, residents should not let their guard down.
“Things can change and the season isn’t over yet, so be vigilant,” she said Tuesday. She added that Arashi is enough to make up one season. “There are months left until hurricane season.”
AccuWeather meteorologist Kottlowski added that it’s also a good time for people to review their hurricane preparedness plans.
“The longer the season goes without a major system that doesn’t affect the land, the more people become complacent,” Kotlowski said. “Even without a year of loading, a severe storm can occur.”
Jenny Gross , Christine Hauser, McKenna Oxenden When Derrick Bryson Taylor contributed to the report.