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Milan, Italy – The editor of Russia’s most respected independent economic journal reluctantly admits Team Putin is weathering the sanctions storm well.
“Some figures for the first half of 2022 have been released, but the overall feeling is much more optimistic than in March or April,” Peter Mironenko of “The Bell” told Fox News. rice field.
“We’re looking at the numbers. They’re not being manipulated. On the other hand, we’re seeing a recession in the second quarter. GDP will be down about 4% and about 7% in the third quarter. It’s a recession, but it’s very big.” More modest than was said three or four months ago. “
And it wasn’t as dramatic as 2009, when the war wasn’t going on. It is also smaller than the Russian Central Bank’s original forecast of an 8-10% decline in GDP this year. And there are more. According to Mironenko, household income has fallen by just 0.8%. We even have deflation now. Some people are swayed by the political climate to cut spending and even save for rainy days.
Putin’s fascination with false history and symbolism may run deeper than we know
Some Russians ignore it because they buy less foreign goods, but in fact, they can still buy imported goods – between brokers and the surprisingly strong ruble, Mironenko said iPhone’s The price is said to be about the same as the price of the iPhone. one year ago. When he made a recent purchase for himself, his father, he was shocked to learn that fact.
The government has wisely avoided price controls, he says. The unemployment rate is at historically low levels. Some of this is artificial. Since the war began, the government has increased pensions and salaries.
“Sanctions have not reduced the Russian budget’s revenues from oil exports, so the government has money,” said Mironenko, who recently defected due to immense pressure on the press.
“It will be in 2022 and 2023[having the money]and as we know historically Vladimir Putin’s government has also been very good and very much about people’s personal incomes. It was cautious ..since 2000 it was very much associated with rising oil prices.”
In any case, Mironenko added that Putin must maintain its prosperity project and that as long as Moscow has the money, it will use them to keep the Russians in the black.
What are the sanctions against Russia doing?
How long is that, if you ask Mironenko? He acknowledges that sanctions work in theory, but “it’s a long process. Historically, there aren’t many examples of even the heaviest sanctions working in one year. The impact — from three years to He will change policy within five years.”
The energy dance is a difficult one, according to Mironenko, and oil is more important than gas to Russia’s coffers, and in some ways a commodity to play with.
Vladimir Putin has supposedly started the game of reducing the flow of gas to Europe. But when a European ban on Russian oil kicks in at the end of the year, it could rekindle serious woes in Russia, and Mironenko is watching the moment closely.
Meanwhile, when it comes to public opinion, it’s not just the propaganda-obsessed Russian crowd that blames the West for the hardships they’re going through, even if the economy is artificially stronger. Living a connected life is harder, and for many educated, democratically-minded Russians, it is vitally important.
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Mironenko said there has been much outrage among people who feel they have been shut out of the West, and there has been much debate about where and how one should live one’s life from a moral standpoint. , the economy may be quite solvable for now, but self-searching and anxiety are dragging many Russians down.